Back in 2020 I argued that the nearshore software market was broken: thousands of providers on one side, buyers who cannot find the right one on the other. In 2026 it is not just broken. It is buried in noise.
Three things changed since 2020
Demand went down. A long stretch of budget caution, hybrid work that made "where the team sits" far less important, and AI assisted development (vibe coding included) mean a smaller team now ships what used to take a big one. Companies need fewer hands, not more.
Supply went up. When SaaS valuations fell, many product companies bolted services onto their business or pivoted to selling software development outright. The number of firms offering nearshore engineering has grown, not shrunk.
Outreach went up tenfold. Fewer deals plus more vendors has one obvious result: every R&D or IT lead in the DACH region now gets around ten nearshoring emails a day. They ignore all of them, and they are right to.
Same problem, new requirement
The core problem has not changed: finding the right firm was always hard. What changed is what you are looking for. A Head of R&D no longer wants cheap capacity, they want the smartest skills, senior people and AI fluent teams. And skill is far harder to assess than headcount, which makes the right firm harder to find, not easier.
Why the matchmaking still fails
Finding a software partner is a bit like online dating. A longer list of good looking profiles does not help you find the right long term match. It just raises the noise. More providers, more outreach and more identical pitches make the signal harder to find, not easier.
What actually works in 2026
One thing still cuts through: a trusted introduction from someone who knows both sides. Not a cold email. Not a marketplace ranking. A person who has worked with these companies, understands your situation, and only introduces a firm when it genuinely fits. That is the entire idea behind what I do, and in a market this loud it matters more than ever.